When Silicon Valley Meets Wall Street: A Theory of Financial Overengineering

Oct 3, 2025

Jun Aoyagi, Yuki Sato

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We study a model `a la Kyle (1985) where a trading firm hires a financial engineer to develop proprietary technology for an informational edge. The signal produced through this hiring is firm-specific and non-contractible, leading to a bilateral monopoly in wage determination. The model admits multiple self-fulfilling equilibria in technology innovation. In one equilibrium, excessive and inefficient innovation arises due to technological opacity and misaligned incentives between the firm and the engineer. The model connects financial market outcomes to contractual frictions in the finance industry and yields novel empirical implications for identifying inefficiencies in financial technology investment.

Jun Aoyagi

Jun Aoyagi

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Yuki Sato

Yuki Sato